1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,520 In the early morning of Saturday, January 3rd, 2026, the 2 00:00:04,520 --> 00:00:07,280 first sign that something unusual was going on in 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:11,960 Washington DC came from a surprising source, pizzerias. 4 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:16,520 Open source intelligence trackers noted a sudden spike in 5 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,680 late night pizza orders had occurred near the Pentagon and 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:25,120 this can be used as an informal indicator to predict major 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:29,560 events, crises or busy work days for defence personnel. 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:34,600 Shortly before 11:00 PM the prior evening, President Donald 9 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,920 Trump had issued the final command from his Mar A Lago 10 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,760 club. Good luck and godspeed. 11 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,440 Within hours, the leader of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, was 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,560 snatched from his compound in Caracas by a strike force of 13 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:54,440 over 150 aircraft launched from 20 different locations. 14 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:59,880 The assault, dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve, was a textbook 15 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,320 display of modern military prowess. 16 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,840 While US Space Force and Cyber Command effectively turned off 17 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,960 the lights of Caracas and disabled the nation's air 18 00:01:09,960 --> 00:01:14,320 defenses, Delta Force operators were deployed via low flying 19 00:01:14,320 --> 00:01:18,880 Night Stalker helicopters. Maduro, reportedly caught as he 20 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,520 tried to reach a steel safe room, was soon photographed 21 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,200 blindfolded and bound aboard EU s s Iwo Jima. 22 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,600 By late Saturday, he had been delivered to a New York jail to 23 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,640 face federal charges of narco terrorism. 24 00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:37,360 There is a certain irony in the administration's sudden 25 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,480 enthusiasm for importing Venezuelans, especially ones 26 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,760 that it claims were involved in drug gangs. 27 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:48,120 Maduro may be the only Venezuelan in New York hoping 28 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,800 that ICE follows through on its promise of immediate removal 29 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:56,000 back to his home country. Maduro is being detained at the 30 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,280 Metropolitan Detention Centre in Brooklyn, joining a legendary 31 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,480 roster of high profile residents including the ghost of Jeffrey 32 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,440 Epstein and the rapper Sean Diddy Combs. 33 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,880 I imagine Maduro and Diddy are comparing notes in the exercise 34 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,440 yard over how much oil the US government took from them. 35 00:02:15,920 --> 00:02:20,320 The military managed to hit all their targets, but unfortunately 36 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,640 the politicians couldn't even manage to hit the same talking 37 00:02:23,640 --> 00:02:26,600 points. Secretary of State Marco Rubio 38 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,360 initially tried to frame the raid as primarily a law 39 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:34,560 enforcement operation, but the scale of the deployment, which 40 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:39,640 included an aircraft carrier and 14,000 troops, wasn't exactly a 41 00:02:39,640 --> 00:02:44,040 traffic stop from Mar a Lago. The president was far more blunt 42 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,600 about what had just happened, announcing that the United 43 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,160 States would now run and be in charge of Venezuela. 44 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,640 This declaration left allies and observers surprised. 45 00:02:55,920 --> 00:02:59,800 Critics argued that while the raid effectively decapitated the 46 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:04,200 regime, there was a conspicuous lack of next day planning. 47 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,120 Capturing a foreign leader and his wife does not mean that the 48 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:12,080 United States is suddenly in charge of a nation of 28 million 49 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,560 people twice the size of Germany. 50 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,240 When Saddam Hussein was pulled from a spider hole in 2003, it 51 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,800 didn't transform Iraq into a peaceful American asset. 52 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:27,400 It signaled the start of a bloody, decades long insurgency. 53 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:32,600 Similarly, the 2011 ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya left 54 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:37,560 behind a fractured state-run by competing militias, not a stable 55 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,160 democracy. In Caracas, the regime was quick 56 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,920 to signal that it would not go quietly. 57 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,440 As news reported, the police and paramilitaries known as 58 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,600 Collectivos, took to the streets to reassert control in what was 59 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,760 suddenly a headless state. While the raid itself was 60 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,280 spectacular, it wasn't entirely a surprise. 61 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,760 It followed months of visible escalation, a massive military 62 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,440 buildup in the Caribbean, drone strikes on Venezuelan dock 63 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:11,160 facilities, and the seizure of at least 4 sanctioned oil 64 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,600 tankers. The real shock wasn't the 65 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,760 military incursion, but the total absence of any discussion 66 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,120 of a democratic transition or the installation of the 67 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:26,080 opposition leader who won the 2024 election with more than 2/3 68 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,920 of the vote. Instead of the messaging 69 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,280 focusing on a pivot towards liberty, the traditional 70 00:04:32,280 --> 00:04:35,840 hallmark of American intervention, the rhetoric 71 00:04:35,840 --> 00:04:39,240 focused almost entirely on the spoils of war. 72 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,960 President Trump announced that the regime authorities would 73 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:47,480 hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of crude 74 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:52,920 worth up to $3 billion to be sold at his personal discretion. 75 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,000 Early on, Trump had claimed that the military buildup related to 76 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,840 the illegal drug trade, but after the raid, there was no 77 00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:03,600 pretense that this had been about anything other than the 78 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,400 capture of the oil wealth of a nation that claims to sit on 1/5 79 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,480 of the world's proven oil reserves. 80 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:15,200 By prioritizing resources over rights, the administration has 81 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,640 signalled a move towards a new coercive regional doctrine. 82 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,760 As a letter to the FT observed, the scandal is not that 83 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,600 Washington used force, but that it wielded it like a Raider 84 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,800 rather than a statesman, transforming what might have 85 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,880 been a stabilizing act of deterrence into a signal of 86 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,280 predation. The central justification for 87 00:05:38,280 --> 00:05:41,960 this Raider strategy is the staggering promise of 88 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:46,440 Venezuelans natural resources. The country is frequently cited 89 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:51,600 as holding 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, which is 90 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,200 between 17 and 20% of the global total. 91 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,680 Among energy analysts and veteran investors, these numbers 92 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,800 are viewed with deep skepticism. High profile energy investors 93 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,280 like John Arnold have pointed out that this figure was 94 00:06:07,280 --> 00:06:12,080 reported by Hugo Chavez to OPEC to bolster the regime's 95 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,880 international standing and has been uncritically repeated by 96 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:20,040 global bodies ever since. Some estimate that the reserves 97 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,680 may be exaggerated by as much as 220 billion barrels. 98 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,960 Even if this huge reserve figure was accurate, Venezuelan oil is 99 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,520 not the high quality, light, sweet crude found in the US 100 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,280 Permian Basin. Venezuelan oil is heavy and 101 00:06:37,280 --> 00:06:41,320 sour, with the consistency of molasses and a high sulfur 102 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,880 content. It's quite similar to the oil 103 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:48,040 extracted in Canada, which is trading at around $43 per 104 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,240 barrel. Extracting Venezuelan oil is 105 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:55,360 technically difficult, and for transport it has to be blended 106 00:06:55,360 --> 00:07:00,000 with dilutants like NAFTA, which Venezuela imports from Russia. 107 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:05,040 The high sulfur and CO2 content means that stainless steel pipe 108 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,480 and vessels are needed, which are both expensive and 109 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:13,120 challenging to maintain. The existing Chevron operations 110 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,880 in Venezuela are likely profitable at current market 111 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:21,600 prices, but new or regenerated operations in Venezuela would 112 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:26,040 probably not be. Rysted Energy estimates that new 113 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,840 projects in Venezuela would require an oil price of at least 114 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:34,280 $80 per barrel to break Even. So with global crude prices 115 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,200 hovering at around $60.00, a lot of the wealth the US 116 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,040 administration hopes to extract is currently worth less than the 117 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,080 cost of getting it out of the ground. 118 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,720 On top of this, the industry that Trump intends to reboot has 119 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,800 been hollowed out by decades of cannibalization and neglect. 120 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:57,800 Under Chavez and then Maduro, Pedaveasa was transformed from a 121 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,960 world class energy giant into a cash machine for the military, 122 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,920 leading to a catastrophic state of infrastructure where 123 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,640 refineries currently run at 20% of their original capacity and 124 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:15,560 pipelines are over 50 years old. The human capital required has 125 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,760 also evaporated. Most skilled engineers and 126 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,960 geologists have fled the country a long time ago, leaving the oil 127 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:27,240 fields to be managed by soldiers with no technical expertise. 128 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,240 For American oil majors, this is not the gold rush that 129 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,320 politicians are pretending it is. 130 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,520 While the president speaks of billions in imminent investment, 131 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:41,960 industry giants are more focused on being paid the money they won 132 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:46,000 in legal settlements after their assets were nationalized under 133 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,920 Hugo Chavez. Exxon Mobil and Conoco Phillips 134 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,240 are still chasing over $10 billion in unpaid compensation 135 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,560 for assets seized decades ago. This reluctance was made 136 00:08:58,560 --> 00:09:02,880 explicitly clear yesterday evening by ExxonMobil CEO Darren 137 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,480 Woods. Striking A skeptical tone at a 138 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,920 White House meeting, Woods described Venezuela as 139 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:13,800 uninvestable without significant changes to the legal system and 140 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:17,880 commercial frameworks. Noting that Exxon had had its 141 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:22,440 assets seized twice before, he warned that a third entry would 142 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,680 require durable investment protections that simply do not 143 00:09:26,680 --> 00:09:29,600 exist today. Why would a public company 144 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:33,440 commit billions to a region defined by such a high break 145 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,560 even price and massive political risk? 146 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:41,080 Beyond the economics, there's a substantial reputational risk in 147 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,360 being attached to an imperial venture that lacks clear legal 148 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:50,000 standing or democratic support. It makes far more sense for 149 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,800 these companies to invest in drilling onshore in the United 150 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:59,120 States or in Guyana, where extraction costs are near $35 a 151 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,560 barrel and the rule of law is far more predictable. 152 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:07,760 While Chevron, the last US major on the ground, may expand at the 153 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,680 margins, most executives are reluctant to commit fresh 154 00:10:11,680 --> 00:10:16,120 capital to a country where a presidential tweet can upend 155 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:21,160 foreign policy overnight. Chevron recently completed a $53 156 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:25,680 billion acquisition of Hess, which gives the US super major a 157 00:10:25,680 --> 00:10:30,800 30% stake in Guyana's rapidly expanding offshore sector, where 158 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,360 the break even price of extraction is half what it is in 159 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:38,200 Venezuela. And without the political risk, 160 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,760 the Venezuelan plan looks less like a strategic masterstroke 161 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,080 and more like an expensive exercise in resource 162 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,800 imperialism. While the economic rationale of 163 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,720 this incursion rests unquestionable geology, the 164 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,560 political plan for governing Venezuela appears even more 165 00:10:57,560 --> 00:11:00,160 tenuous. In the vacuum left after 166 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:04,280 Maduro's capture, the Trump administration has not turned to 167 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,760 the democratic opposition. Instead, it has signalled its 168 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,280 intent to work with the very figures who served as the 169 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,120 backbone of the existing oppressive regime. 170 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:19,040 The Rodriguez siblings, Delsey and George, rose to power as 171 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,480 loyalists to Hugo Chavez and then Maduro, who succeeded him. 172 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,960 George Rodriguez, a trained psychiatrist, serves as the 173 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:32,000 National Assemblies president and chief political strategist. 174 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,880 Delsi, his sister, who served as both vice president and oil 175 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,400 minister, is now the acting president of Venezuela. 176 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:44,880 She is often described as the pragmatic face of the regime, 177 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,120 but she remains deeply implicated in its most brutal 178 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:53,120 misdeeds, from the systematic repression of dissidents to the 179 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:58,400 blatant 2024 election fraud. The decision to sideline Maria 180 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:02,080 Carina Machado, the Nobel Prize winning leader of the 181 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,480 opposition, has stunned the Venezuelan diaspora. 182 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,320 Despite Machado winning a landslide opposition primary and 183 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,560 her hand picked candidate Edmundo Gonzalez securing 2/3 of 184 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:19,360 the vote in 2020, four Trump has dismissed her role, claiming 185 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,720 that she doesn't have the support or respect within the 186 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,760 country. This frostiness appears rooted 187 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,240 in Trump's long standing desire for the Nobel Peace Prize 188 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,120 himself. Sources close to the White House 189 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,720 indicate that Trump viewed Machado's acceptance of the 190 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:40,920 award as an ultimate sin. 1 Insider noted that if she had 191 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,560 turned it down and stated it belonged to Trump, she'd be 192 00:12:44,560 --> 00:12:48,600 president of Venezuela today. In a bizarre turn of events 193 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:53,160 reported yesterday, Trump told Sean Hannity he would accept the 194 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,960 prize if Mikado offered it to him during their meeting next 195 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,960 week, prompting an immediate clarification from the Norwegian 196 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:05,520 Nobel Committee that the award is final and cannot be revoked, 197 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,800 shared, or transferred. Now I don't know how it works 198 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,240 with the FIFA prize. Maybe he'll offer that to her. 199 00:13:12,680 --> 00:13:17,600 This unusual alignment has LED observers like former UN 200 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,520 ambassador Louise Blas to conclude that what occurred in 201 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:26,680 Venezuela was not a traditional regime change, but a negotiated 202 00:13:26,680 --> 00:13:29,560 extraction. In this view, Maduro was 203 00:13:29,560 --> 00:13:34,120 sacrificed by elements of his own governing apparatus, led by 204 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,520 the Rodriguez siblings, to preserve the existing power 205 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,720 structure in exchange for a deal with Washington. 206 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:45,160 This arrangement allows the US to claim the high profile 207 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,000 symbolic victory of Maduro's capture while the Rodriguez 208 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:53,200 faction maintains control over the internal state machinery. 209 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:58,160 The result is a cynical oil for cash pathway, a strategy 210 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:02,120 intended to secure resource extraction while avoiding the 211 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,040 quagmire of a direct long term American occupation. 212 00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:10,880 The idea that Delci Rodriguez could run Venezuela on behalf of 213 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,880 the White House is a massive gamble that overlooks the 214 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:18,040 internal architecture of the Chavista state. 215 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,080 While Rodriguez may be economically literate, she and 216 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:26,120 her brother represent the civilian wing of a regime that's 217 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,800 fundamentally held together by the security services. 218 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:34,400 It's unclear why high-ranking generals or other senior party 219 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,560 officials would agree to take orders from a leader who appears 220 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,880 to be taking direction from Washington, the very imperialist 221 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,600 enemy that Hugo Chavez spent decades framing as an 222 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,600 existential threat to his Bolivarian Revolution. 223 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,440 Peda Vesa itself is run by the military, and asking these 224 00:14:55,440 --> 00:15:00,400 officers to flip their loyalty to AUS puppet administrator is a 225 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,800 direct challenge to their ideological and financial 226 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,640 interests. Furthermore, Delci lacks direct 227 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:11,680 command over the colectivos, the armed militias who are roaming 228 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:16,040 the streets hunting traders. These militias remain loyal to 229 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:20,360 hardline ideologues, not pragmatic negotiators. 230 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:25,320 If the security services refuse to follow her, the US may find 231 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,400 that maintaining its proxy regime requires the very boots 232 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:33,160 on the ground that Trump has spent years promising to avoid. 233 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,480 The Caracas incursion has sent shock waves far beyond Latin 234 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:41,960 America, signaling A dramatic pivot in US foreign policy 235 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,480 towards what's being termed the Don Roe doctrine. 236 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,640 While the term originated a year ago as a tongue in cheek New 237 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,760 York Post headline describing the president's aspirations for 238 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,440 regional dominance, the president officially embraced 239 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,880 the label during his press conference at Mar a Lago last 240 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,720 weekend. Boasting that his administration 241 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:10,200 has superseded the 1823 original by a real lot, He signalled A 242 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:14,280 fundamental transition away from President Monroe's defensive 243 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,200 warning against foreign interference issued when Latin 244 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,160 American nations were first breaking away from European 245 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,440 colonizers. This new Trump corollary moves 246 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,240 beyond mere protection. This new framework claims the 247 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,800 right to effectively own and manage the hemisphere's most 248 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,600 vital resources. The immediate fallout is felt 249 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:41,120 most acutely in Cuba, which depends heavily on Venezuela for 250 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,640 a significant portion of its oil imports. 251 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:48,680 Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a hardliner of Cuban descent, 252 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,560 appears to view the fall of Maduro as the catalyst for the 253 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,480 ultimate collapse of the Cuban regime, with President Trump 254 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:01,200 explicitly stating that the island's economy is now going 255 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:05,160 down for the count. Further afield, Iran and Russia 256 00:17:05,319 --> 00:17:09,640 have condemned the raid as state terrorism, with Tehran watching 257 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:14,280 an alarm as the US implements a maximum pressure model that 258 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,240 could easily be turned toward them. 259 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,800 Next, the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately condemned 260 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,440 the operation as a blatant use of force against a sovereign 261 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,839 state. Analysts at the Brookings 262 00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:31,680 Institution and elsewhere worry that this early win in Caracas 263 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,040 serves as a dangerous template for adversaries. 264 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:39,560 Observers fear that if the international community accepts 265 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:43,120 a might equals right philosophy in the Western Hemisphere, 266 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:47,440 Beijing may see a clear green light for its own designs on 267 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,280 Taiwan. This philosophy was explicitly 268 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,880 defended by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, 269 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,640 who argued in a recent television interview that the 270 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,880 world is governed by the iron laws of strength rather than 271 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,800 international law illusions. This aggressive posture marks a 272 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:12,320 startling U-turn for a president who campaigned on a promise of 273 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:17,240 MAGA isolationism and avoiding fruitless foreign entanglements. 274 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,680 Despite that rhetoric, the appetite for further adventures 275 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,760 was perhaps most provocatively captured by Katie Miller, 276 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,600 Stephen Miller's wife, who right after the Maduro capture posted 277 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,680 a map of Greenland on social media coloured in the Stars and 278 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:39,760 Stripes with the caption soon. The question remains whether 279 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,920 this is a coherent long term strategy or a high stakes 280 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,080 diversion. Critics point to the timing. 281 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,040 Trump is currently struggling in domestic polls and the Epstein 282 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,720 scandal remains A persistent headline. 283 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,640 This has led to wag the dog accusations that the 284 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:02,360 administration is manufacturing foreign crises to distract from 285 00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:07,160 an affordability crisis at home. While polling shows that many 286 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,360 Americans support a democratic transition in Venezuela, there's 287 00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:15,440 significant disapproval when the mission is perceived as an 288 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,920 attempt to plunder resources or expand imperial power. 289 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:25,040 As the administration celebrates its tactical success, it is yet 290 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,840 to explain how it intends to govern a nation it has 291 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:33,400 effectively annexed, or what it will do when the rule of law is 292 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,360 finally replaced by the rule of force. 293 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:41,480 Operation Absolute Resolve was executed without a single 294 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,520 reference to conventional democratic oversight. 295 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,960 While the president claimed to have spent months consulting 296 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:53,280 with U.S. oil majors on the day after scenario, executives at 297 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,000 ExxonMobil and Conoco Phillips have since denied any prior 298 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,520 knowledge of the raid or it's aftermath. 299 00:20:00,120 --> 00:20:03,600 By failing to seek a formal authorization for use of 300 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,880 military force, the administration has ignited A 301 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:11,640 constitutional crisis that many lawmakers view as a dangerous 302 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:16,240 expansion of executive power. Very few will mourn the end of 303 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:20,720 Nicolas Maduro's rule. Over 13 years, he presided over 304 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,680 a spectacular national collapse, overseeing the exodus of eight 305 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,240 million citizens and the enrichment of a narrow military 306 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,040 clique. His tenure was defined by 307 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:36,200 systematic human rights abuses, including the imprisonment of 308 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,480 thousands of dissidents and the deployment of armed collectivos 309 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,280 to suppress any whisper of opposition. 310 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:48,400 However, the tactical success of his capture does not resolve the 311 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,560 question of its legality under international law. 312 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,000 Experts point to Article 2, paragraph four of the UN 313 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,800 Charter, which prohibits the use of force against a sovereign 314 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:04,040 state, a rule with no narco terrorism carve out for 315 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:08,120 kidnapping a foreign leader. The administration's selective 316 00:21:08,120 --> 00:21:11,560 application of justice is further complicated by the 317 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,920 president's recent pardon of Juan Orlando Hernandez, the 318 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,680 former president of Honduras. Hernandez was sentenced to 45 319 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:25,200 years in prison for managing a cocaine superhighway that moved 320 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:30,200 400 tons of the drug, a scale that dwarfs the specific charges 321 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,240 currently levelled against Maduro. 322 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:37,080 Overriding such a conviction suggests that drug indictments 323 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,480 are now being used as a tactical tool for regime stabilization 324 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,920 rather than a consistent law enforcement priority. 325 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,520 The Trump administration's hostility towards international 326 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:52,640 law is felt most acutely at the International Criminal Court in 327 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,360 The Hague. Judge Kimberly Prost, who 328 00:21:55,360 --> 00:21:59,720 overseas cases of genocide and war crimes along with eleven 329 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,680 other ICC officials, were sanctioned by the US government 330 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,000 in August. Prost was targeted for her role 331 00:22:07,120 --> 00:22:11,360 in authorizing an investigation into alleged war crimes by US 332 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,800 personnel and the CIA in Afghanistan. 333 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,120 The impact on Prost has been profound. 334 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,520 U.S. companies, including Amazon and Microsoft, cancelled her 335 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:26,680 accounts, meaning that she can no longer shop online and use US 336 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,360 based e-mail services. With her bank accounts frozen 337 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,960 and credit cards cancelled, she describes A paralyzing existence 338 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,480 where she's on the same list as international terrorists, 339 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:43,200 organized crime bosses and Russian oligarchs, A surreal 340 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,320 consequence for a judge dedicated to global 341 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,680 accountability. This targeting of international 342 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,000 courts coincides with a massive shift in domestic priorities in 343 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,400 the United States. Just days after the Caracas 344 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:02,840 raid, the president proposed A historic $1.5 trillion military 345 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:08,240 budget for 2027, a nearly 50% increase from the prior year. 346 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:13,240 Billed as the creation of a dream military, this war chest 347 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:17,760 expansion during a time of nominal peace signals an intent 348 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,280 to normalize the kind of military assertiveness seen in 349 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,440 Venezuela. The Donro Doctrine reached its 350 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,400 most transactional expression on Tuesday when the president 351 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,640 announced the seizure of $3 billion worth of oil, which he 352 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:38,480 said was being transported by US charter tankers directly to 353 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,680 American unloading docks. In a post on his version of 354 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,200 Twitter, he announced that he would personally control the 355 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,320 money made from this oil to ensure that it's used to benefit 356 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:55,000 the US and Venezuela, with the caveat that Caracas may only 357 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,400 purchase American made products with the proceeds. 358 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,600 This model allows Washington to extract the spoils of the 359 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,480 incursion while bypassing the US Treasury and the 360 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,120 responsibilities of a formal occupation. 361 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,040 By forcing the interim government into a lopsided 362 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,880 partnership that prioritizes US commercial rents, the 363 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,960 administration has fundamentally redefined the role of American 364 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:25,000 power in the hemisphere. Despite the legal controversy 365 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,680 surrounding his capture, Nicolas Maduro faces a daunting path in 366 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,920 the US courts. Legal analysts and recent 367 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:37,680 commentary in The Economist suggests that Maduro is unlikely 368 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,200 to beat his rap, primarily because US domestic law is 369 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,840 remarkably indifferent to the methods by which a defendant is 370 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:50,800 brought to justice under the Cur Frisbee doctrine, A 19th century 371 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,480 ruling that essentially says we don't care how you got here, 372 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,120 we're just glad you could make it. 373 00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,960 US courts have repeatedly held that the power to try a person 374 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,040 is not impaired by the fact that they were brought into the 375 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,000 jurisdiction via forcible abduction. 376 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:12,320 Furthermore, Maduro's primary defense, head of state immunity, 377 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,960 rests on a thin Reed. Since the United States has not 378 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:21,360 recognized him as Venezuela's legitimate leader since 2019, 379 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,600 the State Department will likely issue an immunity determination 380 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,680 that denies him the person of the sovereign protections 381 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,080 typically afforded to world leaders. 382 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:37,240 The prosecution's case reveals A striking gap between political 383 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,400 branding and legal reality. For years, the administration 384 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,640 characterized Maduro as the kingpin of the Cartel of the 385 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,240 Sons, a group that the State Department designated as a 386 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:53,920 foreign terrorist organization. Yet the indictment largely 387 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,760 abandons the claim that any such organization exists. 388 00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:02,520 Instead, it portrays the cartel as an abstraction, a convenient 389 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,320 shorthand for a decentralized system of institutionalized 390 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:10,160 corruption and a patronage network managed by Venezuelans, 391 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,880 military and political elite. Critics point out that the DEA's 392 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:19,240 National Drug Threat Assessment has never officially mentioned 393 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,480 the Cartel of the Suns as a major trafficking organization, 394 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:28,000 leading to accusations that the administration may have oversold 395 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,880 its case to provide a legal rationale for the incursion. 396 00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:36,280 These gaps highlight the paradoxical nature of the trial. 397 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,600 While Maduro may have a credible argument that the charges are 398 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,080 politically motivated or that that the Cartel of the Suns is a 399 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,800 fantasy cooked up by U.S. politicians, his attempts to 400 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,880 dismiss the charges will most likely fail. 401 00:26:51,120 --> 00:26:55,640 When the trial gets going, it'll look like any other narco case, 402 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,000 meaning that it will rest on the strength of the evidence. 403 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:02,760 According to the legal experts interviewed by The Economist, 404 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:07,120 the bar to show participation in a criminal narcotics conspiracy 405 00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:11,680 like this is quite low. They say that it won't be hard 406 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,680 for jurors to grasp that Venezuela is a weigh station for 407 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,640 Colombian drugs and that its most senior officials knowingly 408 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,880 enabled their transit. They argue that there could be a 409 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:28,240 diplomatic off run for Maduro where if he offers enough value 410 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,560 to America, there is a version of the world where he could 411 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,960 negotiate his own release. The capture of Nicolas Maduro 412 00:27:36,120 --> 00:27:40,360 has delivered the US president a high profile victory, but it 413 00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:44,360 leaves the Western Hemisphere in a state of profound uncertainty. 414 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,000 The emergence of the Donro doctrine signals a world where 415 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:54,200 the US acts as an apex predator, trading the post 1945 rules 416 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,280 based order for a coercive model of resource extraction. 417 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,440 We live in a world in which you can, you can talk all you want 418 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,160 about international niceties and everything else, but we live in 419 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:12,440 a world in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, 420 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,360 that is governed by force, that is governed by power. 421 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,120 These are the iron laws of the world. 422 00:28:18,120 --> 00:28:20,280 But are you saying that the beginning of time? 423 00:28:20,360 --> 00:28:24,720 But while the immediate win may provide a temporary distraction 424 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:29,080 from domestic affordability crises and other scandals, the 425 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:33,040 long term project of running a nation of 28 million people 426 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:38,000 remains a high stakes gamble. Analysts at the Cato Institute, 427 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,480 a conservative think tank, warn that by ignoring its stated 428 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,400 antiwar principles, the administration risks a Middle 429 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,760 East style quagmire that effectively puts America last. 430 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:55,960 This strategic drift is most evident in the decision to Co 431 00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,200 govern Venezuela, with Delci Rodriguez, a socialist fanatic 432 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,000 and core member of the existing regime. 433 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:07,360 Rather than supporting the victors of the 2024 election by 434 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:11,400 opting for a repackaged version of the Chavista status quo, 435 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,360 Washington is choosing stability over the type of democratic 436 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,320 transition that it has championed in the past. 437 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,760 The economic promise of Venezuelan oil is increasingly 438 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,560 viewed as a mirage by industry veterans. 439 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,800 With Venezuelan oil infrastructure in a state of 440 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,000 catastrophic decay and the global market already awash in 441 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,080 cheaper crude, the billions in investment the present demands 442 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:41,600 are unlikely to materialize, especially as his administration 443 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,560 continues to bypass the very rule of law that investors 444 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,800 require for security. Legal experts point out that the 445 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,400 Controlled by ME plan for oil revenue likely violates the 446 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,840 Miscellaneous Receipts Act and the Anti Deficiency Act, 447 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:03,360 creating a quasi budget process that bypasses congressional 448 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:09,280 appropriations and transparency. This radar logic has already 449 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,680 pivoted from the Caribbean to the Arctic. 450 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,720 On Friday, the President escalated his rhetoric regarding 451 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:20,480 Greenland, dismissing Denmark's 500 year old territorial claim 452 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:25,320 as irrelevant and warning that the US would acquire the island 453 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,200 the easy way or the hard way possible. 454 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,840 US, I'm not talking about money for Greenland yet. 455 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:35,120 I might talk about that, but right now we are going to do 456 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,000 something on Greenland whether they like it or not by. 457 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:42,480 Characterizing long standing defense treaties as mere leases 458 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,160 that the US no longer intends to honor, the White House has 459 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:50,080 signaled that even NATO allies are not immune to the 460 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,520 transactional logic of the Donro Doctrine. 461 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:58,040 The Danish Prime Minister has already warned that any military 462 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,080 move on Greenland would spell the end of NATO. 463 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,720 Yet the administration seems undeterred, even floating plans 464 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,160 for correct cash payments of up to $100,000 to individual 465 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,160 Greenlanders to encourage secession. 466 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:17,480 Ultimately, the Caracas incursion will be judged by its 467 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,240 global ripple effects. As the President proposes a 468 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,760 record 1.5 trillion dream military budget to fund these 469 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,160 territorial ambitions, adversaries in Moscow and 470 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,560 Beijing are watching with interest, seeing a template for 471 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:38,480 their own regional designs on Taiwan and beyond. the United 472 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,000 States has proven that it has the military might to decapitate 473 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:46,280 a regime in a single night, but it is yet to prove that it has 474 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,480 the statesmanship to build a lasting peace from the spoils. 475 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,560 Thanks again for tuning into this week's podcast. 476 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,840 With special thanks to my supporters on Patreon whose 477 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,200 support makes this podcast possible. 478 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,040 Have a great day and talk to you again soon. 479 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,200 Bye. Don't worry.